I suspect this is going to generate
some debate.
-
It's based on Neilsen TV markets (and estimation of TV market for Toronto
and Montreal).
-
I've considered the top 50 US TV markets plus Toronto and Montreal.
-
I've made educated guesses at what fraction of markets outside their home
to assign to teams; thanks to everyone who's given me suggestions on those.
-
I've made educated guesses on how to divide up the two team markets with
the presumption that some people can be (at least casual) fans of both
teams.
-
I'm willing to adjust the rankings for accuracy or reasonableness,
but I've tried to solicit suggestions before putting any
numbers here to avoid people trying to make it "come out right".
What I discovered:
When looking at market size as "number of TV households", I found basically
three groupings: large market teams (with >130% of average market size),
small market teams (with <=70% of average size), and a clump in the
middle. I'm going to list them here, along with their market size (as a
percentage of average), which markets they cover (with percentages), and
how those markets rank among the top 52 US markets (plus TOR and MON).
LARGE MARKET TEAMS
-
New York Yankees
-
Market size: 262
-
Markets: New York (#1/75%), Hartford (29/40)
-
Comments: No surprise here; having lived in Danbury CT for three years,
I mark Hartford as being strictly AL territory, with a slight edge toward
the Red Sox. The Yankees' AA team in Norwich (and the Sox' AA team moving
from New Britain to Trenton) may change this.
-
New York Mets
-
Market size: 244
-
Markets: New York (1/75)
-
Los Angeles Dodgers
-
Market size: 175
-
Markets: Los Angeles (2/70), Albuquerque (51/10)
-
Comments: The NY teams really are the 800 pound gorillas. I was convinced
that the Dodgers have a structural advantage over the Angels, partly due
to length of history and partly to geography. Their AAA team is in Albuquerque,
which is a bit closer than Edmonton.
-
Boston Red Sox
-
Market size: 155
-
Markets: Boston (6/100), Hartford (29/60), Providence (52/90)
-
Comments: Probably the first big surprise. There's an advantage to being
in the part of the country where everything is close together. As a Red
Sox fan, I look at this and wonder how they could have made such a mess
of their local TV for the last 4-5 years.
-
Anaheim Angels
-
Market size: 147
-
Markets: Los Angeles (2/60)
-
Philadelphia Phillies
-
Market size: 130
-
Markets: Philadelphia (4/100), Harrisburg/Lancaster (48/10)
-
Comments: The Phillies have the largest market of any team that doesn't
have to share it. That alone should keep anybodyfrom calling them anything
other than a large market team. Should.
MEDIUM MARKET TEAMS
-
Baltimore Orioles
-
Market size: 124
-
Markets: Washington (8/75), Baltimore (26/100), Raleigh/Durham (31/10),
Harrisburg/Lancaster (48/10)
-
Comments: I could see an argument for calling them large market, particularly
if you think they should have more of the DC market.
-
Seattle Mariners
-
Market size: 112
-
Markets: Seattle/Tacoma (14/100), Portland (25/80)
-
Comments: They drop in ranking if you think they don't deserve Portland,
but not enough to become small market. Also, this doesn't count Vancouver,
primarily because I couldn't find good market size numbers for anything
in Canada.
-
Chicago Cubs
-
Market size: 105
-
Markets: Chicago (3/70)
-
Comments: I was convinced that the Cubs have some structural advantage
over the White Sox.
-
Texas Rangers
-
Market size: 103
-
Markets: Dallas/Ft. Worth (7/100), San Antonio (39/20), Oklahoma City (47/10)
-
Atlanta Braves
-
Market size: 102
-
Markets: Atlanta (11/100), Charlotte (30/20), Raleigh (31/20), Greenville/Asheville
(37/10)
-
Comments: Even before TBS, the Braves were a regional team. The biggest
uncertainty in this list (in my mind) is how to account for TBS.
-
Toronto Blue Jays
-
Market size: 96
-
Markets: Toronto (10/100), Buffalo (44/30)
-
Florida Marlins
-
Market size: 95
-
Markets: Miami/Ft. Lauderdale (18/100), Orlando (24/25), West Palm Beach
(46/50)
-
Detroit Tigers
-
Market size: 95
-
Markets: Detroit (9/100), Grand Rapids/Kalamazoo (40/20)
-
Comments: Smaller than Florida, but within rounding error.
-
Chicago White Sox
-
Market size: 90
-
Markets: Chicago (3/60)
-
Tampa Devil Rays
-
Market size: 87
-
Markets: Tampa/St. Petersburg (16/100), Orlando (24/35)
-
Houston Astros
-
Market size: 86
-
Markets: Houston (12/100), San Antonio (39/20)
-
Cleveland Indians
-
Market size: 84
-
Markets: Cleveland (15/100), Columbus (36/40)
-
San Francisco Giants
-
Market size: 84
-
Markets: San Francisco/Oakland/San Jose (5/60), Sacramento/Stockton/Modesto
(22/30)
-
Montreal Expos
-
Market size: 78
-
Markets: Montreal (13/100)
SMALL MARKET TEAMS
-
Minnesota Twins
-
Market size: 69
-
Markets: Minneapolis/St. Paul (17/100)
-
Cincinatti Reds
-
Market size: 69
-
Markets: Indianapolis (27/20), Cincinatti (34/100), Columbus (36/30), Louisville
(50/40)
-
Arizona Diamondbacks
-
Market size: 64
-
Markets: Phoenix (19/100)
-
Comments: Whoda thunk it. If you told your average baseball columnist that
the D-Backs are a smaller market team than the Twins, do you think there's
any chance he'd believe you?
-
Oakland As
-
Market size: 61
-
Markets: San Francisco/Oakland/San Jose (5/40), Sacramento/Stockton/Modesto
(22/30)
-
Colorado Rockies
-
Market size: 59
-
Markets: Denver (20/100)
-
Comments: Yeah, they're the only team in Mountain time (till the D-Backs).
Of course, prairie dogs don't buy tickets. Or have cable.
-
St. Louis Cardinals
-
Market size: 56
-
Markets: St. Louis (23/100), Memphis (45/10)
-
Pittsburgh Pirates
-
Market size: 54
-
Markets: Pittsburgh (21/100)
-
San Diego Padres
-
Market size: 45
-
Markets: San Diego (28/100)
-
Comments: No attempt to account for Tiajuana.
-
Milwaukee Brewers
-
Market size: 39
-
Markets: Milwaukee (33/100)
-
Kansas City Royals
-
Market size: 38
-
Markets: Kansas City (35/100)
That's it. Two real outliers at either end of the scale.
ODDITIES
-
Biggest market without a team: Washington (8)
-
Biggest markets really without a team: Sacramento (22), Orlando
(24)
-
Markets with no claims: Nashville (32), Salt Lake City (38), Birmingham
(41), Norfolk/Portsmouth/Newport News (42), New
Orleans (43), Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point (49)